What is this current El Nino looking like and how will that impact things over here in Western KY.

The first picture is a model from the International Research Institute out of the Columbia Climate School. It shows two trends. One shows around a +1.0C event, which would be a moderate El-Nino, and another one including the model average shows around a +1.5 to +2.2C event, which I would be more inclined to believe to be the reality.

The stronger the El-Nino the more likely our atmosphere and therefore our observed weather patterns will behave in El-Nino ways as described in the post yesterday.

For us in Western KY what does this mean. While not all El-Nino’s are the same there are some notable trends. The stronger the El-Nino the more likely we will have a warm to even much warmer than average late Fall and Winter. November and December in particular tend to be very warm during significant El-Nino events.

1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 were our strongest El-Nino events are they were all decidedly warmer than average for our area. Whereas a few events that were just on the border of being strong El-Ninos such as 1941-42, 1957-58, and 1987-88 featured average to even slightly below average temperatures.

We also tend to be drier than average as the active subtropical jet is typically suppressed to our south. One caveat, if it is supercharged and really strong like say during 2015-16 then that may not prove to be true.

Overall while not all El-Nino’s are not created equal, if I were a betting man I would lean towards a warmer and drier (November-Early March timeframe). If we approach or exceed a +2.0C event then the chance for significant or even near-record warmth increases during that timeframe. Since November-December tend to be quite warm, I would seriously doubt that we will have a back-to-back White Christmas, but sometimes you can sneak in a pretty potent snowstorm in January-February during these type of winters.

Examples of Past El-Ninos

El-Nino’s tend to occur every two to seven years, with a stronger/significant one (+1.5C temperatures in the East Pacific or more) tending to occur once every decade or so. El-Nino in and of itself is not that rare and is something that we have experienced multiple times in our lifetimes.

Some examples of past El-Ninos with an (S) next to more significant events.

1918-19

1930-31 (S)

1940-41 (S)

1941-42 (S)

1951-52

1957-58 (S)

1965-66 (S)

1972-73 (S)

1976-77 and 1977-78

1979-80

1982-83 (S)

1986-87

1987-88 (S)

1991-92 (S)

1994-95

1997-98 (S)

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07

2009-10

2015-16 (S)

2018-19

Video By Astrum