The timeline of when to be concerned about weather events (so we don’t get tricked by the like and subscribe, and I will tell you my gut knowledge of why we will see an Ice Storm or Tornado Outbreak on such and such day).

Seasonal: You can look at analogs (past winters) or Sea Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Data (such as PDO or El-Nino/La-Nina) to give you general clues of what potential features may impact the weather of that season. There is no way you can predict specifc severe weather events or snow/ice amounts at this time. If you see forecast snow/ice amounts or calls of an outbreak at this time, then unfollow that page as they are hyping.

6-14 Days Out: You can watch for large-scale patterns (like heights or where prominent ridge/trough features would be located). You can watch and see where the jet stream will generally be located at and track any storms out in the Pacific that may impact us. We still cannot forecast specific snow/ice amounts with any systems at this time. We could give a heads up about potential systems that could cause severe/tornado issues, but we cannot forecast storm mode or intensity at this timeframe. If you see forecast snow/ice amounts or calls of an outbreak at this time, then unfollow that page as they are hyping.

3-5 Days Out: We can start to pinpoint specific systems and start to really watch and track those systems. There is often still too much model uncertainty to go into specific details about total snow/ice amounts or storm mode/intensity, but this is the time when your NWS, meteorologists, and non-hype weather pages can really start messaging the public and telling them to watch this date or this storm for the potential of significant impacts. The process of separating the run-of-the-mill event from a significant event can begin at this timeframe.

36 to within 72 Hours: Often, you can start making the first official forecasts of potential snow/ice amounts, really talk about impacts, and allow for people to start being prepared if the event is significant. This is when we start seeing more detailed Storm Prediction Center outlooks, more accurate AI runs, and if confidence is high enough, issue a Winter Storm Watch.

12-36 Hours: Updated official forecasts, watching for trends that will be more accurate to be picked up on models since the storm’s data is already being modeled. Warnings and Advisories can be issued for winter events, and briefings conducted for severe weather events.

Within 12 Hours: Nowcasting, the focus shifts from actual observations and short term high-resoultion models that are sampling data as it is coming in live. People should be getting prepared and bracing for an event’s impact.

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