news – Page 3 – Upland-South Science

Overview:

It is probably not a surprise that I voted for the worst tornado outbreak in our area’s history is December 10th-11th, 2021. This was the deadliest confirmed tornado outbreak in our area’s history and it does feature the 2nd and 4th deadliest single tornadoes in our history. This was by far the most destructive event I have ever tracked and the tornadoes of this outbreak, especially the long-tracked one caused by the Quad State Supercell are discussed extensively on science, weather, and tornado forums to this very day.

Setup:

December 2021 was the warmest month on record for our area and much of the Southeastern USA and Lower Midwest. The Gulf of Mexico was also above average as well. This led to the potential for much greater moisture return and instability should a strong enough low-pressure system track to our northwest and take advantage of it.

There was one system on December 6th that took advantage of some of that instability and produced 5 brief (EF-0 and EF-1) tornadoes across our area, including two in Todd County and tornado activity halfway between Wingo and Murray. While that system moved through another significant system was appearing several days later in the models.

As a result of the record warmth and the rich supply of moisture return, we had record-setting storm fuel by December standards. We also had a significant/strong low-pressure system sub-1000mb strengthening to sub-990mb across parts of Eastern Iowa/NW Illinois and into the Great Lakes. The strength of this low-pressure system plus the fact it was gaining strength as the outbreak carried on created a very strong low and mid-level jet. Creating significant wind energy and directional wind shear. Record warmth and high dewpoints were present as well. Dewpoints as high as 68F and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (some areas in SW TN even hit 80F). CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg were present which is almost unheard of in the month of December.

The main question from this outbreak was whether the CAP (a warm layer in the middle of the atmosphere) would break a little earlier in the evening and allow for discrete supercells to form, instead of just having storms form along a cold front and give us a traditional squall line or broken squall line setup. Sadly, we found out that the CAP did break allowing for the major supercells that occurred.

*Overall setup courtesy of the National Weather Service of Louisville. Showing a major low-pressure system to our northwest and plenty of warmth/moisture return.*

Another factor that contributed to this outbreak was the degree of force. This was a positively tilted/broad-based trough. This means that the forcing for storms was a bit more subtle, so as long as storms could break the CAP the forcing is not enough to initially force a squall line so the storms would be discrete to semi-discrete supercells. Discrete supercells are the most dangerous types of storms as they have uninterrupted inflow that allows for them to last for hours on end and therefore produce long-track and significant tornadoes, which is exactly what happened.

This is an example of a supercell on radar. The southern part of the storm, where the hook is located is where the storm gets its warm inflow and where the tornado would be located at. This is a supercell from the Alabama 4/27/2011 tornado outbreak that tracked across several states. We had storms that looked just like this during this outbreak as you will see further on in this blog.

Overall we started on the day before and the morning of with a Level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) of severe weather. There were still questions on whether the CAP might prevent the earlier supercells from forming along a pre-frontal trough ahead of the cold front. Once it appeared likely that discrete and significant supercells would form in the early evening then the SPC upgraded to a Level 4 out of 5 (Moderate Risk) from Land Between the Lakes and points west and still kept a Level 3 out of 5, with a conditional but very possible hatched/significant tornado risk elsewhere.

The Early Show:

Just after sunset, the CAP broke which allowed for scattered supercells to form. The first Tornado Warning was in part of Graves, Northwest Calloway, into Marshall County. Thankfully that storm didn’t produce anything but a group of supercells formed near a warm-frontal boundary that was moving northward. The only tornado from this was an EF-1 tornado that struck near Central City doing some damage, especially to powerlines in the area and did significant damage to a retail building.

Across the Missouri Boothill and Northwest Tennessee, a long-tracked supercell was moving through the area. A nursing home was hit in far NE Arkansas in the town of Monette and a Dollar General in Leachville, Arkansas. This tornado was caught by storm chasers as being over a mile wide. The SPC issued a Mesoscale discussion at 745pm letting NW TN and far SW KY that a strong to violent tornado was likely with this discrete supercell. Then in far NW TN after a tornado destroyed businesses near Reelfoot Lake and destroyed a fire department in Samburg, TN another mesoscale discussion was issued as it crossed Fulton County and hence began a sequence of events that will be discussed for decades to come.

The message that I posted for Fulton County as the storm was in far NW TN and crossed into Fulton County. The National Weather Service of Paducah mentioned a significant tornado threat back when the storm was over the Missouri Boothill.

The Quad-State Supercell and Historic Tornado (Cayce, Mayfield, Marshall/Lyon Counties, Princeton, Dawson Springs, Earlington/Barnsley, Bremen, and Hartford areas):

The supercell did briefly weaken a bit in far NW TN, but that changed once it passed Woodland Mills, TN and crossed into Fulton County. The rotation tightened quite a bit and set its sights on the community of Cayce in central Fulton County. The storm began to tighten considerably before striking the community of Cayce head-on. A business was destroyed and several homes were severely damaged in the area producing 1 fatality and 5 injuries across the area with over 60 structures impacted. Once it crossed into Hickman County there were pictures of significant ground scouring and an additional 50 structures were damaged or destroyed.

*A blurry radar image of the storm after it passes Cayce and moving into far SE Hickman County near Fulgham. The greens and reds coming together is where the significant tornado was located.*

*A business that was wiped off its foundation in Cayce. Taken and surveyed by the NWS of Paducah. This is classic violent tornado damage (rated EF-4 at this location).*

After the tornado moved through Fulton and Hickman Counties it set its set for the city of Mayfield. This is the most known part of this tornado outside of our area. The NWS of Paducah was issuing tornado warnings with a (PDS) tag meaning that a significant EF-2+ tornado was likely. As the storm pushed closer to Mayfield, the NWS of Paducah issued our first ever Tornado Emergency for our region from the city of Mayfield. Here are some pictures and videos of the warning as the storm hit Mayfield head-on.

WPSD – Trent Okerson and Noah Bergren. WSIL – Nick Hausen and Jacie Brianne. Mayfield Electric and Water Systems – Mike Hodges. These meteorologists along with the National Weather Service saved many lives with their dedicated coverage of this supercell and tornado outbreak in general.

*Western Kentucky Weather post as the storm moved into SE Hickman County setting its sights on Graves County.*

*Warning Text from the National Weather Service of Paducah*

The spike coming out of the storm is known as a three-body scatter spike. This is usually when a storm has large hail and the radar beam is being reflected off of the hail. In this case instead of large hail, the radar beam is bouncing off the massive amount of debris lofted in the air. On the bottom left image the green and blue colors in Mayfield and surrounding Mayfield is where the storm is lofting up debris. This is something that has never been observed with a tornado and shows you just how destructive of a hit Mayfield took from this tornado. Debris was lifted nearly 7 miles up into the air with this tornado.

This heartbreaking picture by Leann Cope shows the absolute devastation in Mayfield producing high-end EF-4 (borderline EF-5) damage from SW to NE including the downtown area and the industrial area where 8 people lost their lives in a candle factory.

In Graves County, the NWS of Paducah estimates that over 800 structures were completely destroyed and over 2,000 structures were damaged. The most tragic news was that 24 people lost their lives in Graves County with over 200 injuries, which is the 2nd highest countywide death toll in our history (the most being 42 in Fulton County back on 5/27/1917).

Next up was Marshall County and the city of Benton. The tornado did weaken somewhat near Benton as it clipped the northwest part of the city near the hospital. Most of the damage in Marshall County was EF-1 to EF-2 (with some pockets of EF-3 damage just south of Oak Level. The tornado became violent again as it approached Kentucky Lake at Moors Resort and Cambridge Shores. Here 1 fatality and 54 injuries occurred with nearly 700 structures impacted many wiped off of their foundations.

The hook echo and debris ball continued as the storm was south of Oak Level and approached the west/northwest side of Benton. The worst damage was just northeast of Benton in Cambridge Shores on Kentucky Lake just before 10pm.

*From Terri Carey in Cambridge Shores showing complete destruction.*

This tornado still being significant moved across Land Between the Lakes damaging thousands of trees across the area before striking several housing developments along Lake Barkley where Lake Barkley and Interstate 24 meet. Here the tornado impacted nearly 200 structures and sadly produced another death before moving into Caldwell County.

The purple represents a tornado emergency. Here as indicated by the reds and greens the tornado was located near the Lyon/Caldwell County line. This was the last radar shot from the NWS of Paducah as the tornado took out a main TVA line at this point and knocked out power to the National Weather Service of Paducah. The National Weather Service in Springfield, Missouri took over and issued warnings for the rest of the Quad State Tornado, until it crossed into Ohio County and into the NWS of Louisville’s domain.

The tornado strikes the south/southeast side of Princeton in Caldwell County. Damaging and destroying at least 300 structures but the number of structures with some type of damage could be much higher. The UK Agriculture Center and Caldwell Mesonet site took a direct hit as did neighborhoods near the country club. This tornado became deadly (4 Fatal) in the eastern part of the country when it struck homes along US 62 just prior to crossing into Hopkins County and striking Dawson Springs head-on.

Dawson Springs on the Hopkins County side experienced 15 fatalities in addition to the 4 that occurred on the Caldwell County side. Around 3/4th’s of the residential section of Dawson Springs was leveled including industrial buildings and several low-rise apartments. The tornado was still producing EF-4 (violent) damage at this point. The storm then heavily damaged and destroyed homes in Ilsey and the Barnsley area between Earlington and Morton’s Gap. A train was thrown off of the tracks at this location as well.

*Update on the storm by the Storm Prediction Center*

*Damage in the Barnsley area by Christy Law*

*Western Kentucky post as the storm was moving across the southside of Princeton and into Dawson Springs and Hopkins County.*

The tornado moved into rural NE Hopkins County and crossed into Muhlenberg County. When it hits the Milport and Bremen area it strengthened again to a high-end EF-4 (potentially EF-5) tornado and was arguably as strong if not even a hair stronger than it was back when it was in Mayfield. A building that was tested to withstand a significant tornado was destroyed in this area of NW Muhlenberg County. Sadly 11 deaths occurred in and around Bremen as the tornado tracked across the northside of town. The most well-known picture of the tornado comes from this location as well. A meteorologist recorded a vrot (measure of wind energy) at a maximum when the storm was over the Bremen area.

From WX Chasing

*The debris signature after the storm struck Bremen. This radar was from Nashville because several radars were done on my end, but you can clearly see a massive signature.*

The storm then moved into Ohio County doing still significant EF-3 damage to several structures north of Hartford and north of Olaton. It would then move out of our coverage area but still continue as a weaker EF-1 tornado across the Rough River Lake area on the Grayson/Breckinridge County line before finally ending.

This tornado tracking from Woodland Mills, TN near the state line to Rough River Lake Dam traveled 165.7 miles (making it the longest track December tornado on record and the Top-10 in US History as far as tornado tracks go. Another supercell that impacted our area produced the 2nd longest track of any December tornado.

This tornado was the deadliest December tornado in US history, the 2nd deadliest single tornado in our area’s history, the most expensive tornado in our area (likely going over $2 billion dollars in damage), the longest track tornado in our history, and one of the most talked about tornadoes in US history. This storm also lofted debris over 100 miles. Several people in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky reported photos and personal information from Dawson Springs and Bremen.

A truly historic tornado and storm.

*NWS image of the Quad State Supercell. It did produce one EF-1 tornado near Mount Washington before weakening.*

The KY/TN border Supercell (including the KY/TN long tracker, Logan, and Bowling Green Tornadoes):

While the Quad State Tornado was moving through Hopkins and Muhlenberg County another long-track supercell formed ahead of a broken line of storms in West TN. This tornado was producing significant EF-3 damage in Kenton and then in Dresden TN before moving into Henry County. This tornado clipped Calloway County near Fort Heimen knocking down some trees before moving into Stewart County impacting the Bumpus Mills and Big Rock general region. The tornado then crossed into SW Christian County while it was on Fort Campbell property and then clipping the southeast part of Lafayette. Tens of structures were damaged and some destroyed as this tornado struck Palyrma Road, passed just north of Oak Grove and Exit 86 on I-24 before directly impacting Pembroke. A few mobile homes were destroyed and an elementary school had significant roof damage flooding classrooms along with several other structures receiving damage. The tornado moved into Todd County as an EF-1 before lifting west of Elkton.

This tornado also tracked over 100 miles at 122.7 miles, making it the 2nd longest December tornado behind the Quad State one. This tornado was rated EF-3, but the damage across our area peaked at EF-2 in southern Christian County.

*Mesoscale discussion with this supercell*

*Significant rotation as this storm/tornado was between Lafayette and Herndon.*

*Roof damage to a home in Pembroke by the NWS Paducah (surveyed by the NWS of Nashville)*

This supercell picked up strength and developed a second EF-3 tornado as it moved into Logan County. This time just to the northwest of Russellville near the community of Epleys. Producing a cluster of EF-3 damage with several structures heavily damaged especially between Highland Lick Road and US 431. This storm moved across northern Logan County crossing KY-79 near Chandler’s Chapel. This tornado caused 1 injury but thankfully no fatalities. This storm moved into NW Warren County just south of Sugar Grove, but didn’t do significant damage. Sadly, this storm would spin up a more damaging storm after 1am that would be quite damaging.

*A debris ball signature northwest of Russellville. This was producing EF-3 damage at the time.*

Another very significant tornado would reorganize near the Logan/Warren county line, but this time this tornadic rotation would make a beeline toward Bowling Green.

Two areas of rotation (red and green mixed are shown here). One is in NW Warren County which represents the end cycle of the Northern Logan EF-3 tornado and one just north of US 68 is the formation of the third and most deadly EF-3 of this supercell’s life the Bowling Green tornado.

This rotation and tornado quickly took off and just a few miles in produced its first fatality and EF-2/borderline EF-3 damage just north of Rockfield. This tornado was the strongest high-end EF-3 (borderline EF-4) in two main spots in Bowling Green. The first spot was the westside of town from Old Tram Road through the Creekwood subdivision, this is also where it produced the lion’s share of its 17 deaths (16 direct and 1 indirect). Homes in and around the Creekwood subdivision were wiped off their foundation, although due to not great construction quality the tornado couldn’t be ranked higher than EF-3, which is a problem with most modern subdivisions as they are built quickly, especially in a rapidly growing city like Bowling Green. Sadly two homes had multiple fatalities, including one home where 7 different people were killed and another home where 5 people were killed.

The tornado missed the campus of WKU by within a half-mile and instead crossed Russellville RD destroying an Auto Parts store and a Sonic along with several structures before crossing near the Roundabout and moving along US 31-W. Damaging several businesses in the process and doing moderate to locally major damage (mostly EF-1 to EF-2) to several subdivisions. The tornado ramped up to high-end EF-3 (and may have even been briefly up to EF-4) as it struck the industrial park on the east side of the city destroying several buildings. At the same time a satellite tornado (EF-2) formed to the south of the main killer high-end EF-3 and did damage just a few hundred yards away from the main tornado. The Corvette Museum and businesses were damaged and impacted by either the main EF-3 or the EF-2 tornado to its south.

*Two debris ball signatures in Bowling Green from both the main high-end EF-3 and the EF-2 tornado that tracked just to the south of it.*

Drone footage from the Bowling Green tornado

The main killer EF-3 tornado became the 4th deadliest tornado in our area’s history. Combined with the EF-2 was responsible for at least (if not well over) 500 structures being heavily damaged or destroyed with over $100 million dollars in losses. As significant as this tornado was especially impacting the most populated city in our area, it was actually overshadowed a bit by the insanity of the Quad-State Supercell tornado. This tornado would leave our part of Kentucky but would be responsible for several more EF-2 tornadoes and another deadly EF-3 tornado in Taylor County before tracking into Eastern KY and finally weakening. This supercell started back on the Mississsppi River just west/southwest of Dyersburg and tracked almost to the Red River Gorge area of Eastern KY.

Why Was This Significant:

As I stated in previous posts it is hard to lose property to a natural disaster, but it is much harder when you lose a person you care about. People cannot be replaced and grief is a life-long process. This outbreak was the deadliest tornado outbreak in our history meaning that from 9pm on 12/10/2021 to 2am on 12/11/2021 we lost more people to severe weather than any other severe weather event. Storm trauma even for those who did not lose a loved one will be something that many of us will experience for the rest of our lives in this area, very similar to the trauma caused by the 2009 Ice Storm.

We also lost people in multiple counties with fatalities being reported in Graves (24), Warren (16), Hopkins (15), Muhlenberg (11), Caldwell (4), Fulton (1), Lyon (1), and Marshall (1). A few of these counties also had indirect fatalities due to heart attacks or health conditions while taking cover or helping with storm cleanup. The only time we had eight or more counties that reported tornado/storm fatalities was during the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Outbreak of 3/27/1890.

The Quad-State tornado was the most expensive tornado in our history and the Bowling Green tornado is about as costly as the 2000 Owensboro tornado.

This event is still discussed to this day and will be discussed among weather circles. The Quad-State Tornado was likely one of the worst tornadoes to ever occur in the world since the Moore, OK (2013) tornado. It could have very well been an EF-5 tornado as well, but the quality of construction was in question across many of the buildings therefore keeping the tornado a high-end EF-4. Regardless of the rating the significance and life-long impact of this tornado is not in question.

Recovery:

In the days that followed many residents either stayed with siblings or at shelters as tens of thousands of people had homes that suffered damage due to the storm. Over $52 million dollars were raised from the Team Western Kentucky Tornado Relief Fund created by the Beshear Administration. Many Go Fund Me’s were also created and a relief concert raised money in August of 2022.

Home

Recovery groups have also formed to help with community service and organization of relief organizations

Throughout 2022 debris removal also occurred including the removal of 1.2 million pounds of tornado debris from KY Lake.

Mayfield 2 Years Later

Princeton, Dawson Springs, and Bremen in August of 2022

*Dawson Springs from before the tornado (2013) versus after the tornado (2023).*

*2019 vs 2023 (before and after the tornado) along KY-81 in Bremen.*

*Bowling Green’s rebuilding just 6 months after the tornado. This was one of the hardest hit areas of the city.*

As tragic as the event was there were several instances of generous behavior in this event. Here are just some of the examples. It really showed us what it means to be an American and a Kentuckian.

Inmates on Work Detail in Mayfield stayed back to help pull victims out of the rubble at the Candle Factory, one who suffered injuries came back while injured to save more people in the collapsed building.
Multiple people held donations for Christmas toys to help salvage some sort of Christmas for tornado victims
Relief groups came from multiple states to help with cleanup and donations.
A Facebook group was created to reunite tornado victims with their prized possessions and pictures, in some cases that were lofted up to 150-200 miles away from their original location
Excellent performance by the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, and local media for both their during storm-coverage and post-storm coverage. If it wasn’t for their warnings the death toll for this event would have likely exceeded 200 across our area.
Schools that were in session spent a good chunk of their week before Christmas making care packages and Christmas cards for students that were in the impacted areas.

Overall this is a historic tornado event that I hope will never be repeated and will not be forgotten.

Links:

https://www.warrenpc.org/webmaps/disastermaps/

^^ Disaster map and pictures of the entire Bowling Green track ^^

https://www.14news.com/2022/09/17/dawson-springs-teen-writes-childrens-book-about-december-2021-tornado/

^^ A children’s book written by a high school student in Dawson Springs was influenced by the tornado ^^

https://www.tornadotalk.com/the-immeasurable-cost-of-the-december-10-11-2021-tornado-outbreak/

WeatherBrains 881: I’m A Bag Of Hot Air

^^ This reading gives details about the tornado, several tornado pictures, and has a place of remembrance for all of the people who lost their life during these tornadoes. This is a read that will likely cause you to shed some tears so keep that in mind ^^ Also a Weather Brains episode featuring several meteorologists from the area.